tiptrot.com
tiptrot.com June 28, 2017


We may not see oil at $100 again

13 May 2017, 12:55 | Cedric Leonard

Energy minister in Saudi Arabia made concerning prognosis

Goldman On Commodities: Upside & Downside For Oil

Oil prices rose slightly on Friday, on track for their biggest weekly gain in five weeks, helped by expectations of an extension of OPEC-led output cuts and buoyed by falling USA crude inventories.

Iraq and Algeria say they support the extension of oil production cuts by OPEC and non-OPEC producers through the end of the year to try to boost prices.

Excluding Alaska and Hawaii, it said output from the other 48 states would expand by 390,000 bpd from May 2017 to December 2017 assuming a US light crude price of $50.

Shortly before oil producers agreed in principle last September to stabilize the market, OPEC's analysts saw production outside of the cartel dropping by around 100,000 barrels a day in 2017.

OPEC said that one producer in particular is to blame: The U.S., where shale producers have continued to ramp up their drilling despite lower crude prices. Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said he was "confident the agreement will be extended into the second half of the year and possibly beyond", in comments at a conference in Kuala Lumpur.

The Saudis convinced OPEC to cut production to raise prices in November, but OPEC countries can't cope with low crude prices and already appear to be cheating to balance their national budgets.


Nearly five months later, USA production is rising faster than anyone predicted and his plan has been shredded. "In addition to the growth in the US, higher oil production is expected in Canada and Brazil".

Nymex benchmark gasoline contract for June rose 0.2% to $1.5657 a gallon, while June diesel was 0.1% higher at $1.4916. Now, OPEC is revising upwards its estimates of how quickly supplies will grow outside of its membership this year by a whopping 64 percent.

USA supplies declined by 5.25 million barrels to 522.5 million last week, Energy Information Administration data showed Wednesday. Unless oil prices rally meaningfully, that will continue, he said. The fiscal outlook for the country looks so dire when compared to 2013's surplus of $48 billion, that the International Monetary Fund warned it could go through its fiscal reserves within five years.

The EIA has lso increased the forecast for petroleum supplies from non-OPEC countries.

M - Turkmenistan is likely to join an OPEC-led cut in oil supply aimed at supporting prices, sources in OPEC and the industry said, potentially enlarging the output reduction slightly, Reuters reported.

This week the estimate mushroomed to 950,000 barrels a day, mostly because of a resurgence of US shale production with a little help from Canada and Brazil.



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