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17 May 2017, 11:26 | Cedric Leonard
He said "rising US production and record inventories have kept upside limited and a nine-month extension at this stage is unlikely to break that."Goldman Sachs said output would increase from OPEC members that were exempt from the cuts".
Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed in November to cut 1.2 million barrels a day of oil production.
Initially, it had been planned that the deal to cut nearly 1.8 million barrels per day in production and agreed on December 10, will be effective in the first half of this year with possibility of rollover toll the end of 2017.
Oil prices jumped 2 per cent yesterday after the energy ministers of the world's two biggest producers, Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation, jointly said that a crude production cut needed to be extended from the middle of this year till March 2018.
Venezuela is undergoing a wave of unrest with protesters angry at an economy in crisis, with food and medicine shortages and soaring inflation.
A proposal to extend an Opec and non-Opec supply cut for nine months is a positive idea, sources familiar with Iranian thinking said, suggesting Opec's third-largest producer is likely to go along with such a plan if there is a consensus.
Crude futures settled higher on Friday, recovering from a five-month slump, after Saudi Arabia said its supports the idea of extending the supply-cut agreement beyond June while the number of active United States drilling rigs rose for an sixteenth straight week. US light crude also gained 20 cents at $49.05 a barrel.
USA bank Goldman Sachs said the deal "will likely further extend the oil price rebound... although the rally so far... has remained modest compared to the move that occurred a year ago when the OPEC cuts were first announced".
The IEA, which advises Western governments on energy policy, said if OPEC maintained output at April's 31.8 million bpd, and nothing changed elsewhere in the balance, there would be an implied global draw of 700,000 bpd in the second quarter.
USA production is now forecast to average about 9.31 million bpd this year - a level reached already, according to government figures. Sloup says it could surpass that if buoyed by higher prices.
Some analysts doubted that the producers would stick to a prolonged curb.
"Extending the cuts until March 2018 would take account of the fact that demand in the first quarter of a year is lowest for seasonal reasons", said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch.
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