tiptrot.com June 22, 2018

RBA holds rates, warns on strong Aussie dollar

03 August 2017, 12:17 | Cedric Leonard



Although the exchange rate remains a key driver of export growth, manufacturers also benefitted from stronger economic growth in key markets in the euro area, North America and Asia-Pacific regions'.

Dr Oliver said if this happens it will be good for the Australian share market but there may be a further rise in the Australian dollar due to the US Federal Reserve's likely reluctance to raise its interest rate further. In some other markets, prices are declining.

"Next week's U.S. data (non-farm payrolls and ISM) could offer some support for United States dollars but the releases may fail to ease the pervasive bearishness of the FX investors", CACIB argues.

The Australian dollar fell following the decision to keep rates on hold, but recovered some ground through the morning.

In his statement released after yesterday's RBA board meeting, Dr Lowe said that the bank's central forecast was still for the economy to grow at an annual rate of around 3 per cent over the next couple of years, and for inflation to "pick up gradually as the economy strengthens". Retail sales have picked up recently, but slow growth in real wages and high levels of household debt are likely to constrain growth in spending. It would also cause the progress in economic activity and inflation to be slower than predicted.

One bright spot for the economy is the prospect of recovery in business investment spending.

The bank noted that forward-looking indicators point to continued growth in employment over the period ahead.

The Australian share market is expected to start the week higher, bouncing back from Friday's 1.4 per cent plunge on the back of concerns about the USA economy and the direction of U.S. government policy.

According to data compiled by IHS Markit Britain's Manufacturing PMI jumped from 54.2 to 55.1 in July, rallying from a notable drop in activity in June and beating expectations of only a 0.2% rise. Higher prices for electricity and tobacco are expected to boost CPI inflation. "It implies they're a long way from raising interest rates". A factor working in the other direction is increased competition from new entrants in the retail industry.

Meanwhile, the S&P/ASX 200 index traded 0.35 percent lower at 5,690.50 by 03:50 GMT, while at 03:00GMT, the FxWirePro's Hourly AUD Strength Index remained neutral at -11.95 (a reading above +75 indicates a bullish trend, while that below -75 a bearish trend). Growth in housing debt has been outpacing the slow growth in household incomes.

"The Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time", he said.

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