tiptrot.com June 22, 2018

Why Yellen's Jackson Hole speech could be a dud

23 August 2017, 12:25 | Cedric Leonard

Though tensions between the USA and North Korea started eased last week, experts have warned that geopolitical fears could still drag down global markets. The pound strengthened slightly against the euro on Monday.

Another possibility is that it may be the bullish flag pattern, which could go substantially higher, as the usual method for calculating the target is by extrapolating the length of the pole from the point of the breakout.

European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi will join the likes of Federal Reserve boss Janet Yellen at the prestigious event, though reports suggest that his speech will sidestep any discussion of the ECB's own policy plans.

Shares traded in the US were rising 2.3% in premarket trading on Tuesday following BHP's announcement it would seek to exit its USA onshore oil business.

UBS strategist Manik Narain, however, argues that withdrawing quantitative easing (QE) in the euro zone won't hurt so much as the dollar process.

Mr Draghi's comments will still be scoured for any sign that the central bank boss may be willing to start unwinding the ECB's asset purchasing programme.

Elsewhere in the U.S., we will get home prices data tomorrow; business conditions survey results on Wednesday, new and existing home sales (Wednesday and Thursday) and durable goods orders (on Friday).

Jackson Hole is one of the most prestigious conferences on the global central-banking calendar and has been used in the past as a forum to foreshadow policy actions.

"After testing support at 108.50 three times over the past month, dollar/yen appears to have found a base at this level and the key question this week will be whether the dollar can stage any sort of counter trend rally ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium this week", he added. And it could provide the backdrop for the ECB president to signal the eventual withdrawal from loose monetary policy by the central bank. Both the Empire State and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing indexes beat expectations, and consumer confidence rose to its strongest level in seven months.

In the United Kingdom we get the second estimate of second quarter GDP, while the final estimate of Germany second quarter GDP will be out on Friday.

"With its commodity stocks maintaining the gains they saw yesterday - In part helped by a positive statement from BHP Billiton, which saw the Aussie giant bow to investor pressure and announce it was offloading its U.S. shale business - and Persimmon up 3% following another Brexit-ignoring update, the FTSE rose 0.7% in early trading" notes Spreadex Analyst, Connor Campbell. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect existing-home sales grew 0.7% in July.

"A risk is that she elevates concern about financial stability as a factor which would warrant a more aggressive path of rate hikes".

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