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IEA: Global Crude Demand to Endure Wave of Electric Cars
15 November 2017, 12:21 | Cedric Leonard
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Both benchmarks early in the previous week hit highs last seen in 2015, but traders said the market had lost some momentum since then.
Recent gains in crude oil values, which have put prices at plus $60/bbl, may not last if the factors driving price rises - namely, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East - prove to be temporary, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.
"Many commentators say we are writing the obituary for oil demand".
The report from the Paris-based agency will come as grim news for officials attending global climate talks in Bonn, Germany, as they grapple with ways to contain carbon emissions.
"Even after some modest reductions to growth, non-OPEC production will follow this year's 700,000-bpd growth with 1.4 million bpd of additional production in 2018 and next year's demand growth will struggle to match this", the IEA said.
IEA said it had cut its longer-term oil price projections from past year, partly because of the falling cost of both renewable and conventional sources of energy, the worldwide push to tackle climate change and improve air quality and the boom in U.S. shale oil and gas output.
The US government said on Monday US shale production in December would rise for a 12th consecutive month, increasing by 80,000 bpd.
First, the world's energy demand will rise the equivalent of China and India's current energy consumption over the next three decades - but Canada has limited direct conduits to connect those energy-hungry markets to its store of the world's third-largest oil reserves.
"Over the same period, U.S. gas companies ramped up their exports to Canada and Mexico, pushing net USA imports of pipeline gas down to around 25 bcm in 2016, compared with 80 bcm some ten years earlier", IEA economists said.
After an upbeat performance last week, oil prices edged lower for a second day Tuesday.
The IEA noted that output by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was down by 830,000 bpd year-on-year in October, although demand for the group's crude is expected to fall to 32.6 million bpd in the fourth quarter of this year and to 32.0 million bpd in the first quarter of 2018.
Chris Watling, CEO and chief market strategist at Longview Economics, was quoted as saying that the adoption of EVs could lead to global peak oil demand as soon as 2023, which will result in oil prices crashing to $10.
The IEA states that the shale oil revolution in the U.S. continues thanks to the "remarkable ability of producers to unlock new resources in a cost-effective way".
Brent crude oil prices recently climbed to two-year highs of more than $60 a barrel due to supply disruptions, geopolitical concerns and a growing expectation that an Opec-led agreement to reduce production will be extended through 2018.
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