tiptrot.com
tiptrot.com May 27, 2018


Northern Ireland will stay in the Single Market after Brexit

10 February 2018, 02:54 | Bernice Figueroa

Northern Ireland will stay in the Single Market after Brexit

UK analysis shows big economic hit from Brexit

"But of course it is hard to see how we can avoid using that fall-back position if the British Government is determined to pursue a strategy that results in them leaving the single market and leaving the customs union in an absolute way".

Northern Ireland would be the third-worst affected of the UK's regions by a no-deal Brexit - however the secret analysis, which is now viewable to all MPs only in a confidential reading room in Westminster, does not model the impact of a hard border between the North and the Republic.

Leave-voting Wales would suffer a 9.5 percent drop in GDP growth under a no-deal scenario, with Remain-backing Scotland facing a fall of 9 percent and Northern Ireland down by 12 percent.

It suggests Northern Ireland will remain under European Union law after the transition period where it is relevant to the north-south economy, and the requirements of the Good Friday Agreement.

The leaks have emerged despite MPs reading the documents under controlled conditions.

However, UK ministers, including the Brexit Secretary, have suggested the areas requiring alignment would be minimal.

But he said it was hard to see how Prime Minister Theresa May would secure a new arrangement and avoid the need to adopt a fall-back position of full alignment with the customs union and single market on the island of Ireland. "They are still keeping "no deal" on the table despite how crippling it would be to the regional economy".

Likewise, it said a Brexit deal which maintained single market and customs union membership would cost 2.7% of Scotland's GDP, fractionally higher than Whitehall's assessment.


London will take the least damage, according to the controversial forecasts which ministers were forced to release after they were leaked to the media and amid pressure from Labour and pro-EU Tories.

"People did not vote to make themselves poorer".

SNP MP Peter Grant said: "The leaked United Kingdom government's internal Brexit analysis makes for utterly grim reading, and Theresa May must now end the shameful secrecy surrounding the United Kingdom government's Brexit plans and publish the papers in full - which we now know will have catastrophic consequences for Scotland and the UK's economy".

Liberal Democrat Brexit spokesman Tom Brake said: "This is a damning outlook for Britain".

"The Tories must now explain why they accused the Scottish Government of scaremongering when their own government was covering up similar findings". We need to stop Brexit before it is too late.

"The public have a right to know, and a right to reverse this if they wish".

The letter, sent on Thursday and signed by Bruce Crawford MSP, SNP Group Convener, said: "As you may be aware, your department made inadequate arrangements for MSPs to view the preliminary Brexit analysis today and tomorrow".



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