tiptrot.com June 24, 2018

India clocks world's fastest GDP growth in Q4

03 June 2018, 08:33 | Cedric Leonard

The Singapore Strait is one of the world's busiest commercial shipping routes and vital to the city-state's economyMore

The Singapore Strait is one of the world's busiest commercial shipping routes and vital to the city-state's economyMore

India's GDP grew slightly better than expected at 7.7% for the quarter ending March 31, 2018, raising the prospect of an interest rate hike by the country's central bank later this year.

It also predicted a deceleration in China's growth rate, estimating a 6.6 per cent growth in 2018, down from 6.9 per cent in 2017.

The uptick in GDP figure is supported by the buoyancy in the industrial production data in the fourth quarter.The core sector witnessed a growth of 4.7 % in April compared to 4.4 % in March.

India is rebounding from an economic slowdown, with growth seen at more than 7 percent, only to find itself ensnared by the volatility engulfing emerging markets. Moreover, the improvement in the construction GVA growth in Q4 FY2018 benefitted from the base effect, given the issues related to demonetisation, including the availability of labour, Nayar said.

Backed by government spending and investment, the economy grew at a seven-quarter high of 7.7% in January-March.

The growth in GVA was widespread led by public administration, which saw growth of 13.3 percent year-on-year.

"GVA growth also escalated to 7.6% y-o-y from 6.6% in Q4, primarily driven by agriculture and industry". The GDP growth was 6.1 per cent in January-March 2016-17.

The government will release GDP data today around 1200 GMT.

Growth in Asia's third-largest economy, reported by the ministry, trumped forecasts in a Reuters poll of annual growth at 7.3 percent.

With good GDP growth and rising inflation, all eyes will now be on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on its policy stance.

India's quarterly growth slowed to as low as 5.7 percent in spring a year ago as the economy reeled from the cash ban and readied itself for GST, which aimed to create a single market in India.

The latest round of FICCI's Economic Outlook Survey conducted by economists from industry, banking and financial service sector, said that the brewing trade tensions between the United States and China and protectionist measures by some leading economies may hit the Indian exporters, particularly MSME exporters, in the coming months. Possibly, the biggest risk could be rising crude oil prices, which this month hit $80 a barrel, their highest since 2014. We retain it at that level... there is no one-to-one relation between the oil price growth and the GDP growth.

Consumption, which accounts for almost 70 per cent of the US$2.5 trillion (RM9.95 trillion) economy likely remained firm, supporting economic growth as reflected in the higher sales of consumer durables and vehicles.

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